OpenAI has begun testing advertisements on ChatGPT, with analysts projecting that the company could develop an annual advertising business worth up to $25 billion within four years, directly challenging Google’s core search ad market. According to a research report by Evercore ISI senior analyst Mark Mahaney, if OpenAI successfully executes its advertising strategy, its annual ad revenue could exceed $25 billion by 2030. This forecast is based on ChatGPT’s vast user base, high-intent user interaction data, and the overall scale of the digital advertising market.

OpenAI announced that it will show ads to select free and Go subscription users in the coming weeks. Initial ads will appear at the bottom of ChatGPT responses, tailored to the conversation context. The company stressed that all ads will be clearly labeled and that private chat content will not be shared with advertisers.

Mahaney stated that the path to generating billions in ad revenue by 2026 and surpassing $25 billion by 2030 is reasonable. He highlighted that ChatGPT has nearly 1 billion weekly active users, with many expressing needs, interests, and purchase intent during interactions—high-value signals similar to those underpinning Google and Meta’s digital ad dominance. Currently, Google’s search and YouTube ad business is expected to generate nearly $300 billion in revenue in 2025, while Meta will contribute around $180 billion, both with over 40% operating margins. Mahaney suggested that if OpenAI creates a “helpful rather than intrusive” ad experience, it could divert commercial search traffic away from Google.

OpenAI is exploring a “conversational ads” model, allowing users to research, compare, and discuss potential purchases within ChatGPT. This deep engagement is considered a high-intent scenario, highly attractive to brand and performance advertisers, and could lead to a reallocation of marketing budgets.

Despite the promising outlook, Mahaney cautioned that OpenAI faces significant hurdles in challenging Google’s dominance. Google boasts a mature ad tech stack, along with strong ecosystem barriers through Chrome, Android, and ingrained user search habits. He noted that while ChatGPT won’t replace Google overnight, it has already altered the competitive landscape.

OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar recently revealed that the company’s annualized revenue for 2025 has exceeded $20 billion, a tenfold increase from $2 billion in 2023. The advertising business is seen as a key avenue to boost profitability. As testing expands, the market will closely monitor how OpenAI balances user experience, commercialization, and privacy protection.